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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 23, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Phoenix Coyotes 2, Washington Capitals 4

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.

WSH winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX11005115230
WSH110212112434

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:23WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Eric Fehr · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 13:29PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Robert Lang, Peter Mueller · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:22WSHEric FehrPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P2 17:06WSHAlexander SeminGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Shaone Morrisonn · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
  5. P3 7:24PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Jim Vandermeer, Robert Lang · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:54WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 6:32PHXSami Lepisto: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 14:54PHXZbynek Michalek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 19:29PHXZbynek Michalek: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 8:56WSHShaone Morrisonn: Holding the stick2 min
  5. P2 11:30PHXScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 17:38WSHEric Fehr: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 19:21WSHAlexander Semin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P3 7:48WSHTomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 8:07PHXMatthew Lombardi: Holding2 min
  10. P3 11:29PHXSami Lepisto: Holding2 min
  11. P3 12:57PHXEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 17:12WSHNicklas Backstrom: Cross checking2 min
  13. P3 19:00WSHJeff Schultz: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 19:00PHXShane Doan: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Fleischmann
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXWSH
30Shots on goal34
2.7Expected goals4.7
47Shot attempts66
26Faceoffs won38
5Power plays7
16Penalty minutes12
23Hits29
17Blocked shots12
18Giveaways19
8Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 4.7 xGPHX 2.7 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 48/100 · #636 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.44 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.

WSH winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).