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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 23, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Florida Panthers 2

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

0

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.

FLA winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR015014010039
FLA071916222

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:36FLACory StillmanPPGWGAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
  2. P3 13:05FLAKenndal McArdleAssists: Gregory Campbell, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 7:11FLASteve Reinprecht: Holding2 min
  2. P1 19:47FLAStephen Weiss: Cross checking2 min
  3. P2 4:22TORTomas Kaberle: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 8:23TORFrancois Beauchemin: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 9:29FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 8:31FLAStephen Weiss: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 14:38TORMatt Stajan: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Primeau won the faceoff against Reinprecht
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORFLA
39Shots on goal22
3.0Expected goals2.5
72Shot attempts36
30Faceoffs won24
4Power plays3
6Penalty minutes8
15Hits27
6Blocked shots15
3Giveaways5
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.5 xGTOR 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLATOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 1/100 · #1219 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.62 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.

FLA winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).