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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 23, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Los Angeles Kings 3, Detroit Red Wings 2

Away

Los Angeles Kings

3

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.

DET winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK012111210333
DET21107015233

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:29DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Daniel Cleary, Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:31DETTodd BertuzziPPAssists: Brian Rafalski, Nicklas Lidstrom · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–2
  3. P2 1:55LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Brad Richardson, Wayne Simmonds · Tip-in, 0.46 xG1–2
  4. P3 6:27LAKPeter HarroldAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
  5. P3 12:03LAKBrad RichardsonGWGAssists: Scott Parse, Anze Kopitar · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 6:05LAKAlex Frolov: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:18LAKWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 13:29DETKris Draper: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 11:51DETDerek Meech: Holding2 min
  5. P3 13:04LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
  6. P3 18:19DETPatrick Eaves: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Helm
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKDET
33Shots on goal33
2.9Expected goals1.9
60Shot attempts52
24Faceoffs won29
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
37Hits24
8Blocked shots15
8Giveaways7
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 1.9 xGLAK 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 63/100 · #443 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.40 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 15% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.

DET winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).