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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 23, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Atlanta Thrashers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (SO)

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Final

Shootout

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 66% of the time.

TBL winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
ATL110010015030138
TBL1701006031226

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:23ATLNik AntropovAssists: Bryan Little, Pavel Kubina · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 7:28TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Ryan Malone · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
  2. 2. ATL Maxim Afinogenov stopped
  3. 3. TBL Steve Downie stopped
  4. 4. ATL Ilya Kovalchuk stopped
  5. 5. TBL Vincent Lecavalier stopped
  6. 6. ATL Bryan Little stopped
  7. 7. TBL Kurtis Foster stopped
  8. 8. ATL Rich Peverley stopped
  9. 9. TBL Jeff Halpern scored
  10. 10. ATL Todd White stopped
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 5:28TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 5:28ATLBoris Valabik: Fighting5 min · PPG
  3. P1 6:01ATLColby Armstrong: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 6:01TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 6:55ATLPavel Kubina: Interference2 min
  6. P1 10:09TBLMatt Walker: Cross checking2 min
  7. P1 11:08TBLNate Thompson: Roughing2 min
  8. P1 11:08ATLNik Antropov: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 14:25TBLSteve Downie: Interference2 min
  10. P2 18:32TBLMatt Walker: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 18:32ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 19:33TBLRyan Malone: Cross checking2 min
  13. P3 2:57TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
  14. P3 5:22TBLMike Lundin: Slashing2 min
  15. P3 8:13ATLMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min
  16. P3 12:38ATLToby Enstrom: Hooking2 min
  17. OT 2:03ATLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
  18. OT 3:51TBLAlex Tanguay: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Peverley
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLTBL
38Shots on goal26
3.2Expected goals2.3
74Shot attempts45
35Faceoffs won35
6Power plays4
22Penalty minutes26
12Hits13
9Blocked shots14
6Giveaways9
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.3 xGATL 3.2 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 45/100 · #680 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.43 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 40% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 66% of the time.

TBL winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).