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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 23, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Chicago Blackhawks 1, Vancouver Canucks 5

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

1

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.

VAN winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI012014118144
VAN31201026528

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:19VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:21VANHenrik SedinGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Tip-in, 0.28 xG0–2
  3. P1 18:22VANSteve BernierAssists: Pavol Demitra, Christian Ehrhoff · Backhand, 0.26 xG0–3
  4. P3 3:30CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–3
  5. P3 4:02VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
  6. P3 18:34VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 0:19VANShane O'Brien: Interference2 min
  2. P1 11:18VANChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 18:53CHIAndrew Ladd: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 18:53VANRyan Kesler: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 2:56CHIDustin Byfuglien: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 15:37VANChristian Ehrhoff: Cross checking2 min
  7. P2 15:37CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 15:37VANSteve Bernier: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 5:08VANMason Raymond: Interference2 min
  10. P3 10:56CHITomas Kopecky: Holding2 min
  11. P3 10:56VANMikael Samuelsson: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Toews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIVAN
44Shots on goal28
2.9Expected goals2.8
70Shot attempts43
26Faceoffs won30
4Power plays1
11Penalty minutes17
14Hits18
10Blocked shots17
5Giveaways6
6Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.8 xGCHI 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #940 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.62 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.

VAN winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).