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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 23, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Buffalo Sabres 2, San Jose Sharks 5

Away

Buffalo Sabres

2

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.

SJS winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF114015111240
SJS0529310524

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:19BUFTim ConnollyAssists: Jason Pominville, Jochen Hecht · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:07SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Manny Malhotra · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 14:00SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Joe Thornton, Rob Blake · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P3 0:18BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Chris Butler, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P3 6:31SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
  6. P3 10:27SJSJed OrtmeyerAssists: Ryane Clowe, Scott Nichol · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
  7. P3 19:00SJSJed OrtmeyerENAssists: Scott Nichol, Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 9:30BUFPaul Gaustad: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P1 13:09SJSBrad Staubitz: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 13:09BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 15:18SJSRyane Clowe: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 2:52SJSDevin Setoguchi: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 3:54SJSJed Ortmeyer: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 9:15BUFAdam Mair: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 14:40SJSBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 14:40BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 18:47SJSScott Nichol: Tripping2 min · PPG
  11. P3 16:13BUFCraig Rivet: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 19:33BUFDrew Stafford: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nichol won the faceoff against Gaustad
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFSJS
40Shots on goal24
4.3Expected goals3.1
74Shot attempts56
34Faceoffs won35
4Power plays4
12Penalty minutes12
23Hits32
16Blocked shots14
14Giveaways12
8Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.1 xGBUF 4.3 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 58/100 · #526 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.56 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.

SJS winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).