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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 24, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.

PHI winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT1501116222
PHI11005013128

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:18PHIJeff CarterPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell · Wrap-around, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P1 14:33PITSergei GoncharPPAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
  3. P3 18:13PITMatt CookePPGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–1
Penalties (23)
  1. P1 4:57PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:44PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P1 8:46PITAlex Goligoski: Cross checking2 min
  4. P1 10:04PITJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 10:47PHIMike Richards: High sticking2 min
  6. P1 13:23PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 13:23PHISimon Gagne: Roughing2 min · PPG
  8. P1 13:23PHISimon Gagne: High sticking2 min
  9. P1 16:04PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min
  10. P1 19:15PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
  11. P1 19:15PITKris Letang: Fighting5 min
  12. P1 19:15PHIDarroll Powe: Fighting5 min
  13. P2 17:03PHISimon Gagne: Tripping2 min
  14. P2 19:55PITMike Rupp: Elbowing2 min
  15. P3 2:00PITAlex Goligoski: Boarding2 min
  16. P3 6:20PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 6:20PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 6:20PHIDarroll Powe: Roughing2 min
  19. P3 6:20PHIArron Asham: Roughing2 min
  20. P3 11:01PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
  21. P3 12:26PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
  22. P3 16:50PHIKimmo Timonen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  23. P3 19:12PITSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Betts
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITPHI
22Shots on goal28
2.0Expected goals3.3
50Shot attempts62
23Faceoffs won36
6Power plays9
29Penalty minutes23
33Hits39
16Blocked shots19
7Giveaways5
9Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.3 xGPIT 2.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 40/100 · #741 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.36 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.

PHI winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).