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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 24, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Dallas Stars 0, Colorado Avalanche 4

Away

Dallas Stars

0

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.

COL winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL0120708027
COL21411418436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:16COLBrett ClarkPPGWGAssists: Darcy Tucker, Brandon Yip · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:30COLTJ GaliardiSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
  3. P2 8:54COLChris StewartAssists: Paul Stastny, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
  4. P3 12:36COLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Chris Stewart, John-Michael Liles · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 5:06DALNicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 10:43COLScott Hannan: Holding2 min
  3. P1 12:17DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
  4. P2 1:17DALJamie Benn: Elbowing2 min
  5. P2 10:34DALStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 17:50COLWes O'Neill: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 5:50COLDarcy Tucker: Too many men on the ice2 min
  8. P3 8:15COLChris Durno: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 8:15DALBrian Sutherby: Fighting5 min · PPG
  10. P3 12:30DALBrad Richards: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  11. P3 15:32COLDarcy Tucker: Too many men on the ice2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Duchene
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALCOL
27Shots on goal36
2.1Expected goals4.4
43Shot attempts55
29Faceoffs won27
4Power plays5
15Penalty minutes13
23Hits13
8Blocked shots8
3Giveaways7
3Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 4.4 xGDAL 2.1 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1199 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.49 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.

COL winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).