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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 25, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Rangers 2

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Final

Home

New York Rangers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.

NYR winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT17010311428
NYR07110113230

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:47PITChris ConnerAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 13:04NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Chris Higgins, Enver Lisin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P3 9:15NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Dan Girardi · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P3 9:46PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P3 10:46PITChris ConnerGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:20PITPascal DupuisENAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 17:00NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
  2. P2 8:02PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
  3. P3 0:20PITJordan Staal: High sticking double minor4 min
  4. P3 4:10PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 9:30NYRMarian Gaborik: Slashing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Dubinsky
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITNYR
28Shots on goal30
4.6Expected goals3.1
56Shot attempts60
26Faceoffs won32
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
40Hits38
19Blocked shots18
2Giveaways5
9Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 3.1 xGPIT 4.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 58/100 · #518 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.74 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 19% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +32 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.

NYR winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).