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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 25, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Buffalo Sabres 2, Vancouver Canucks 3

Away

Buffalo Sabres

2

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.

VAN winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF08111113232
VAN0112915325

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 3:13BUFAdam MairAssists: Matt Ellis, Tim Kennedy · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P2 8:13VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Mason Raymond, Christian Ehrhoff · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. P2 11:33VANHenrik SedinAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
  4. P3 1:49BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Tim Connolly, Tyler Myers · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–2
  5. P3 5:21VANBrad LukowichGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 9:38BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 19:11BUFHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 19:26BUFPaul Gaustad: Cross checking2 min
  4. P3 0:35VANRyan Kesler: Elbowing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Connolly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFVAN
32Shots on goal25
3.0Expected goals2.6
67Shot attempts52
31Faceoffs won29
1Power plays3
6Penalty minutes2
10Hits8
15Blocked shots21
6Giveaways4
8Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.6 xGBUF 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #655 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.47 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 33% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.

VAN winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).