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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 26, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Los Angeles Kings 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3

Away

Los Angeles Kings

5

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.

TOR winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK11231417533
TOR11011216328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:27LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Jarret Stoll, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:06TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 1:54LAKJack JohnsonAssists: Dustin Brown, Matt Greene · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P2 8:19TORNiklas HagmanAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P2 12:37LAKJarret StollAssists: Dustin Brown · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
  6. P2 16:12LAKRyan SmythGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Peter Harrold · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
  7. P3 18:42TORNiklas HagmanAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
  8. P3 19:50LAKAlex FrolovENAssists: Drew Doughty, Rob Scuderi · Snap, 0.71 xG5–3
Penalties (3)
  1. P1 1:15LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
  2. P1 10:54TORIan White: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 17:10TORJason Blake: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKTOR
33Shots on goal28
2.9Expected goals1.8
64Shot attempts53
26Faceoffs won34
2Power plays1
2Penalty minutes4
34Hits25
17Blocked shots19
6Giveaways6
6Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 1.8 xGLAK 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #378 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.47 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 72% of the time.

TOR winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).