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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 26, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Anaheim Ducks 1, Atlanta Thrashers 2

Away

Anaheim Ducks

1

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 51% of the time.

ATL winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA09111015135
ATL01411416234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:32ATLColby ArmstrongAssists: Evander Kane, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
  2. P2 17:58ANASteve EmingerAssists: Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. P3 4:03ATLMaxim AfinogenovPPGWGAssists: Rich Peverley, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 7:02ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 7:02ANAMike Brown: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 10:38ATLEric Boulton: Holding2 min
  4. P1 17:29ANASteve Eminger: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 9:49ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 19:32ATLJohan Hedberg: Cross checking2 min
  7. P3 2:36ANANick Boynton: High sticking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 13:38ATLRon Hainsey: Interference2 min
  9. P3 14:44ANADan Sexton: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 18:52ANARyan Whitney: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Chipchura
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANAATL
35Shots on goal34
3.0Expected goals3.1
63Shot attempts51
27Faceoffs won23
4Power plays4
13Penalty minutes13
12Hits19
7Blocked shots19
7Giveaways6
7Takeaways16

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 3.1 xGANA 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 36/100 · #793 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.24 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 51% of the time.

ATL winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).