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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 26, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Nashville Predators 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3

Away

Nashville Predators

2

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.

CBJ winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH07010213230
CBJ051527317

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 16:10CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Milan Jurcina, R.J. Umberger · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P3 8:00CBJKristian HuseliusPPAssists: Rick Nash, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P3 8:39CBJFreddy ModinGWGAssists: Jan Hejda, Mike Commodore · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
  4. P3 10:06NSHMartin EratAssists: Ryan Jones, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P3 15:36NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Martin Erat, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 9:13CBJDerick Brassard: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P1 16:01CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 2:14NSHFrancis Bouillon: Kneeing2 min
  4. P2 5:29CBJChris Clark: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 10:36NSHShea Weber: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 17:47NSHDan Hamhuis: Cross checking2 min
  7. P3 6:56NSHJason Arnott: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 13:36CBJJan Hejda: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHCBJ
30Shots on goal17
2.0Expected goals1.7
47Shot attempts31
22Faceoffs won30
4Power plays4
8Penalty minutes8
14Hits15
5Blocked shots9
2Giveaways2
2Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 1.7 xGNSH 2.0 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #478 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.07 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.

CBJ winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).