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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 26, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Montréal Canadiens 1, Florida Panthers 2

Away

Montréal Canadiens

1

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.

FLA winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL061407117
FLA0901129229

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 18:47MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Michael Cammalleri · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
  2. P3 3:01FLAShawn MatthiasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
  3. P3 12:59FLAShawn MatthiasGWGAssists: Michal Repik, Dominic Moore · Tip-in, 0.36 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 11:28MTLTomas Plekanec: Holding2 min
  2. P1 19:59MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 17:50FLAKamil Kreps: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P3 3:01MTLJosh Gorges: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
  5. P3 9:34MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 9:34FLAKeith Ballard: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gomez won the faceoff against Kreps
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLFLA
17Shots on goal29
1.8Expected goals2.9
49Shot attempts60
24Faceoffs won22
1Power plays2
6Penalty minutes4
24Hits23
17Blocked shots17
3Giveaways5
5Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.9 xGMTL 1.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 34/100 · #820 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.19 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.

FLA winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).