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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 26, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Phoenix Coyotes 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Detroit Red Wings

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.

DET winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
PHX0821221413537
DET1811221501436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:58DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Brian Rafalski · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P2 10:28PHXScottie UpshallPPAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Shane Doan · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:07PHXKeith YandleAssists: Radim Vrbata, Martin Hanzal · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P2 12:18DETPatrick EavesAssists: Kris Draper, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P3 11:22DETNicklas LidstromAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P3 15:22DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Todd Bertuzzi, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.19 xG2–4
  7. P3 18:30PHXKeith YandlePPAssists: Shane Doan, Adrian Aucoin · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:37PHXEd JovanovskiAssists: Shane Doan, Scottie Upshall · Tip-in, 0.30 xG4–4
  9. OT 3:50PHXShane DoanGWGAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Sami Lepisto · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 9:42DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
  2. P1 15:11DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 8:42DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 14:40PHXKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 19:13PHXRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 6:35DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 14:11PHXShane Doan: Roughing2 min · PPG
  8. P3 18:09DETDarren Helm: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Draper won the faceoff against Fiddler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXDET
37Shots on goal36
2.7Expected goals3.3
61Shot attempts61
39Faceoffs won26
5Power plays3
6Penalty minutes10
23Hits20
10Blocked shots10
5Giveaways19
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 3.3 xGPHX 2.7 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #15 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.66 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 0% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.

DET winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).