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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 26, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Chicago Blackhawks 4, Edmonton Oilers 2

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 86% of the time.

EDM winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI11131709437
EDM0617111224

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:44CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P2 5:50CHITroy BrouwerAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P2 10:14CHIDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Kris Versteeg · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–0
  4. P2 13:53CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Andrew Ladd · Slap, 0.20 xG4–0
  5. P2 19:20EDMFernando PisaniAssists: Ethan Moreau, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–1
  6. P3 5:44EDMRyan PotulnyAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
  1. P2 13:10EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min · PPG
  2. P3 7:49CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min
  3. P3 7:51EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Sharp
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIEDM
37Shots on goal24
4.5Expected goals2.0
69Shot attempts48
24Faceoffs won26
2Power plays1
2Penalty minutes4
6Hits15
15Blocked shots13
12Giveaways17
9Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.0 xGCHI 4.5 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #491 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.73 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 86% of the time.

EDM winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).