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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 27, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

New Jersey Devils 1, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)

Away

New Jersey Devils

1

Final

Shootout

Home

Buffalo Sabres

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.

BUF winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NJD01511307050140
BUF1901008042231

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 14:14BUFAdam MairAssists: Derek Roy, Nathan Paetsch · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P2 14:51NJDBrian RolstonAssists: Johnny Oduya · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
  2. 2. NJD Zach Parise stopped
  3. 3. BUF Jochen Hecht scored
  4. 4. NJD Jamie Langenbrunner stopped
  5. 5. BUF Jason Pominville scored
Penalties (2)
  1. P1 2:45BUFChris Butler: Delaying game2 min
  2. P3 7:57NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00McAmmond won the faceoff against Connolly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDBUF
40Shots on goal31
2.0Expected goals1.7
62Shot attempts48
25Faceoffs won26
1Power plays1
2Penalty minutes2
17Hits21
11Blocked shots12
10Giveaways12
0Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 1.7 xGNJD 2.0 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 21/100 · #955 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.10 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.

BUF winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).