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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 27, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington

Anaheim Ducks 1, Washington Capitals 5

Away

Anaheim Ducks

1

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 93% of the time.

WSH winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA01411106131
WSH119016414549

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:36WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Mike Knuble, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
  2. P2 11:23ANADan SextonAssists: Sheldon Brookbank · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P3 1:45WSHShaone MorrisonnGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P3 2:39WSHMike KnubleAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Shaone Morrisonn · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
  5. P3 4:15WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brooks Laich, Jeff Schultz · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–4
  6. P3 11:47WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 4:10ANASaku Koivu: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 6:25ANARyan Getzlaf: Interference2 min
  3. P2 2:03WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 7:16WSHBrooks Laich: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P2 15:52WSHMike Green: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 15:52ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 6:24ANAMike Brown: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 6:24WSHMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 10:53ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min · PPG
  10. P3 10:53ANACorey Perry: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  11. P3 11:34ANAMatt Beleskey: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 16:47ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 16:47ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 16:47ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 16:47WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 16:47ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 16:47WSHTom Poti: Roughing2 min
  18. P3 16:47WSHTom Poti: Roughing2 min
  19. P3 16:47WSHEric Fehr: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Backstrom
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANAWSH
31Shots on goal49
2.7Expected goals6.7
59Shot attempts81
24Faceoffs won41
2Power plays5
25Penalty minutes19
21Hits16
12Blocked shots17
6Giveaways16
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 6.7 xGANA 2.7 xG
02468P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 29/100 · #875 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.00 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 93% of the time.

WSH winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).