Wed, Jan 27, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 09 | 012 | 033 |
| TBL | 18 | 212 | 010 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:50TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Steve Downie · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 2:23TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Alex Tanguay, Steve Downie · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 5:54TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Vincent Lecavalier · Slap, 0.10 xG0–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:18TBLPaul Szczechura: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:48MTLScott Gomez: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:33TBLMatt Smaby: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:31MTLBrian Gionta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:51MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:51MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:51TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:51TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:51TBLMatt Smaby: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:51MTLRyan O'Byrne: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:51TBLVictor Hedman: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:51MTLScott Gomez: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:32MTLRoman Hamrlik: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:50TBLRyan Malone: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).