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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 27, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Calgary Flames 3, Dallas Stars 4 (SO)

Away

Calgary Flames

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Dallas Stars

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.

DAL winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CGY2911203020326
DAL111110111041436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:58DALMike ModanoAssists: Krys Barch, Mark Fistric · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:04CGYDion PhaneufPPAssists: Jamie Lundmark, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P1 11:27CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Dustin Boyd, Daymond Langkow · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–1
  4. P2 11:37CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Jamie Lundmark, Jarome Iginla · Backhand, 0.37 xG3–1
  5. P2 19:36DALJames NealAssists: Stephane Robidas, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
  6. P3 7:35DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Alex Auld · Slap, 0.12 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. DAL Mike Modano stopped
  2. 2. CGY Olli Jokinen stopped
  3. 3. DAL Brad Richards stopped
  4. 4. CGY Jamie Lundmark stopped
  5. 5. DAL Loui Eriksson scored
  6. 6. CGY Jarome Iginla stopped
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 8:17DALMark Fistric: Fighting5 min · PPG
  2. P1 8:17CGYEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 8:17DALMark Fistric: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
  4. P1 8:17CGYEric Nystrom: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  5. P1 18:27CGYRene Bourque: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 6:23DALNicklas Grossmann: Interference2 min
  7. P3 5:53CGYRene Bourque: Broken stick2 min · PPG
  8. P3 6:28CGYJay Bouwmeester: Boarding2 min
  9. OT 4:09CGYMiikka Kiprusoff: Slashing2 min
  10. OT 4:40CGYMiikka Kiprusoff: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYDAL
26Shots on goal36
3.2Expected goals3.4
70Shot attempts70
31Faceoffs won30
4Power plays5
17Penalty minutes17
33Hits55
20Blocked shots20
4Giveaways8
4Takeaways14

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.4 xGCGY 3.2 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 78/100 · #231 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.94 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 12% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.

DAL winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).