Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 27, 2010·General Motors Place, Vancouver

St. Louis Blues 2, Vancouver Canucks 3

Away

St. Louis Blues

2

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.

VAN winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL1609112227
VAN11408212334

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:24STLKeith TkachukPPAssists: Andy McDonald, David Perron · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:41VANMason RaymondAssists: Ryan Kesler · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–1
  3. P3 3:37VANMason RaymondAssists: Ryan Kesler, Mikael Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P3 10:07STLT.J. OshieAssists: David Backes, Paul Kariya · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
  5. P3 12:12VANChristian EhrhoffPPGWGAssists: Mason Raymond, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 3:03VANAlexander Edler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:51VANShane O'Brien: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 12:24STLJay McClement: Holding2 min
  4. P1 15:17STLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 15:17STLB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 15:17VANRick Rypien: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 11:06STLEric Brewer: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 11:06VANSteve Bernier: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 4:20STLMike Weaver: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 11:40STLPaul Kariya: Slashing2 min · PPG
  11. P3 12:36STLDavid Perron: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Oshie
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLVAN
27Shots on goal34
1.5Expected goals2.4
50Shot attempts50
23Faceoffs won31
2Power plays5
14Penalty minutes8
11Hits7
8Blocked shots15
7Giveaways8
5Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.4 xGSTL 1.5 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #607 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.63 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 40% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.

VAN winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).