Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 28, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Atlanta Thrashers 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.

PHI winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL1701338428
PHI012312013337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:11ATLJim SlaterAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:52PHIClaude GirouxUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P2 10:13PHIArron AshamAssists: Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:17PHIDaniel CarcilloAssists: Ian Laperriere, Blair Betts · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–3
  5. P3 0:29ATLIlya KovalchukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
  6. P3 4:26ATLRich PeverleyAssists: Pavel Kubina, Todd White · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
  7. P3 13:28ATLJim SlaterGWGAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 4:29ATLJim Slater: Holding the stick2 min
  2. P1 7:27ATLPavel Kubina: Interference2 min
  3. P2 7:14PHIMike Richards: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 1:06ATLBryan Little: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 5:01PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 7:41PHIArron Asham: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 11:19PHIArron Asham: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 11:19ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 11:19PHIOle-Kristian Tollefsen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P3 11:19ATLEric Boulton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  11. P3 17:30PHIDaniel Brière: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Carter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLPHI
28Shots on goal37
2.2Expected goals2.9
51Shot attempts60
31Faceoffs won37
4Power plays3
13Penalty minutes15
15Hits28
13Blocked shots11
12Giveaways9
8Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 2.9 xGATL 2.2 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #170 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.04 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 9% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.

PHI winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).