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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 28, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Ottawa Senators 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1

Away

Ottawa Senators

4

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.

PIT winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT21301124428
PIT11101108130

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:34PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Nick Johnson, Ruslan Fedotenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:06OTTMike FisherAssists: Nick Foligno, Matt Carkner · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P1 13:39OTTChris KellyGWGAssists: Jarkko Ruutu, Chris Neil · Backhand, 0.40 xG2–1
  4. P3 4:27OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
  5. P3 18:32OTTNick FolignoENAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.57 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 10:38PITMatt Cooke: Interference2 min
  2. P1 15:13OTTAnton Volchenkov: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 18:25PITMike Rupp: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 18:33OTTAlex Kovalev: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 0:44OTTAlex Kovalev: Interference2 min
  6. P2 5:00PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTPIT
28Shots on goal30
2.4Expected goals1.5
59Shot attempts53
32Faceoffs won34
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
25Hits32
15Blocked shots15
4Giveaways7
1Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 1.5 xGOTT 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 30/100 · #870 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.01 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.

PIT winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).