Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 28, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

New York Islanders 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4

Away

New York Islanders

1

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.

CAR winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI0903115127
CAR2120526423

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:19CAREric StaalPPAssists: Brandon Sutter, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:12CARMatt CullenGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
  3. P3 9:40CARStephane YelleSHAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Tim Gleason · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
  4. P3 15:29NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Frans Nielsen · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:15CARJussi JokinenENAssists: Eric Staal, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 7:52NYIJosh Bailey: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 17:31NYIAndy Sutton: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 13:07CARAaron Ward: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 18:48NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 9:19CARAndrew Alberts: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYICAR
27Shots on goal23
2.8Expected goals4.0
69Shot attempts47
25Faceoffs won22
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
12Hits18
11Blocked shots20
5Giveaways10
7Takeaways18

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 4.0 xGNYI 2.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARNYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #944 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.55 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.

CAR winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).