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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 28, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Los Angeles Kings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1

Away

Los Angeles Kings

4

Final

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.

CBJ winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
LAK171823418
CBJ01404112130

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:05LAKMatt GreeneAssists: Alex Frolov · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P2 15:46LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Ryan Smyth, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
  3. P3 4:05LAKRyan SmythAssists: Dustin Brown · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–0
  4. P3 9:26LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Jarret Stoll, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
  5. P3 10:38CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Kristian Huselius · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 3:18LAKRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 6:17LAKPeter Harrold: Interference2 min
  3. P2 12:07CBJMathieu Roy: Interference2 min
  4. P2 17:52LAKWayne Simmonds: Interference2 min
  5. P3 7:27CBJMike Commodore: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P3 7:54CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKCBJ
18Shots on goal30
1.5Expected goals2.1
37Shot attempts54
25Faceoffs won26
3Power plays3
6Penalty minutes6
18Hits34
15Blocked shots11
1Giveaways2
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 2.1 xGLAK 1.5 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1037 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.70 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.

CBJ winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).