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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 28, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Calgary Flames 2, Phoenix Coyotes 3 (SO)

Away

Calgary Flames

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.

PHX winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CGY0711116020226
PHX0821507012331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 8:32PHXKeith YandlePPAssists: Petr Prucha, Radim Vrbata · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 18:09PHXShane DoanAssists: Scottie Upshall, Matthew Lombardi · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 19:03CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
  4. P3 8:15CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Rene Bourque, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. PHX Robert Lang scored
  2. 2. CGY Olli Jokinen stopped
  3. 3. PHX Lauri Korpikoski scored
  4. 4. CGY Mikael Backlund stopped
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 6:08CGYEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 6:08PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 8:19PHXMatthew Lombardi: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 14:08CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 14:08CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 6:39CGYAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 8:55CGYOlli Jokinen: Interference2 min
  8. P2 11:18PHXLauri Korpikoski: Holding2 min
  9. P2 14:05CGYRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 11:03PHXTaylor Pyatt: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Fiddler
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYPHX
26Shots on goal31
1.9Expected goals2.5
52Shot attempts58
30Faceoffs won35
3Power plays5
12Penalty minutes8
39Hits26
6Blocked shots16
2Giveaways7
4Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 2.5 xGCGY 1.9 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #339 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.68 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 62% of the time.

PHX winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).