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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 28, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

St. Louis Blues 2, Edmonton Oilers 1

Away

St. Louis Blues

2

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.

EDM winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL0911011220
EDM04111010125

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 7:44EDMDustin PennerAssists: Robert Nilsson, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P2 8:01STLEric BrewerAssists: Andy McDonald, Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P3 2:09STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Darryl Sydor · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 16:11STLPatrik Berglund: Boarding2 min
  2. P2 8:27STLMike Weaver: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 8:27EDMMike Comrie: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 10:06STLRoman Polak: Holding2 min
  5. P2 14:17EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Gagner
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLEDM
20Shots on goal25
2.3Expected goals2.0
51Shot attempts57
18Faceoffs won23
1Power plays2
6Penalty minutes4
15Hits13
21Blocked shots19
20Giveaways22
6Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.0 xGSTL 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 21/100 · #954 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.10 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.

EDM winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).