Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 28, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Chicago Blackhawks 4, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Final

Overtime

Home

San Jose Sharks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.

SJS winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
CHI3901001801438
SJS1711911100337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:02CHIDustin ByfuglienAssists: Patrick Kane, Brian Campbell · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:50CHITroy BrouwerAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
  3. P1 8:23CHIAndrew LaddAssists: Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
  4. P1 11:52SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Patrick Marleau · Deflected, 0.19 xG3–1
  5. P2 17:40SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Jason Demers, Dany Heatley · Slap, 0.21 xG3–2
  6. P3 4:56SJSManny MalhotraAssists: Rob Blake, Devin Setoguchi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 2:36CHIBen Eager: Charging2 min
  2. P1 9:35SJSDouglas Murray: Interference2 min
  3. P1 17:36CHIDuncan Keith: Interference2 min
  4. P2 16:40CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P3 18:33SJSJoe Thornton: Delaying game2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Toews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHISJS
38Shots on goal37
3.8Expected goals2.9
60Shot attempts68
30Faceoffs won21
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
20Hits22
17Blocked shots14
13Giveaways11
7Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 2.9 xGCHI 3.8 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 87/100 · #129 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.87 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.

SJS winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).