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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 29, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Boston Bruins 1, Buffalo Sabres 2

Away

Boston Bruins

1

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.

BUF winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS01316012131
BUF2100805223

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:01BUFHenrik TallinderAssists: Tyler Myers, Paul Gaustad · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:32BUFThomas VanekPPGWGAssists: Chris Butler, Tim Connolly · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–2
  3. P2 10:03BOSMilan LucicAssists: Marc Savard, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 5:47BOSShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 13:26BOSVladimir Sobotka: Interference2 min
  3. P1 16:29BOSMarc Savard: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 12:18BOSDavid Krejci: High sticking2 min
  5. P3 11:04BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Gaustad
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSBUF
31Shots on goal23
1.8Expected goals2.1
57Shot attempts43
22Faceoffs won30
1Power plays4
8Penalty minutes2
25Hits19
12Blocked shots9
10Giveaways27
2Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 2.1 xGBOS 1.8 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1071 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.86 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.

BUF winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).