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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 29, 2010·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Anaheim Ducks 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1 (SO)

Away

Anaheim Ducks

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.

TBL winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
ANA0121909022232
TBL1808011041131

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:47TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
  2. P2 6:36ANAJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Whitney · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
  2. 2. ANA Corey Perry stopped
  3. 3. TBL Jeff Halpern stopped
  4. 4. ANA Ryan Getzlaf scored
  5. 5. TBL Brandon Bochenski stopped
  6. 6. ANA James Wisniewski scored
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 2:25TBLMatt Walker: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:25ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 6:12ANABrett Festerling: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 8:24ANAJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 8:24TBLSteve Downie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P1 11:31TBLKurtis Foster: Cross checking2 min
  7. P1 11:31ANAGeorge Parros: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 5:19TBLAndrej Meszaros: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 7:28ANATroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 7:28TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 13:58ANARyan Carter: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 7:09TBLMatt Smaby: Cross checking2 min
  13. P3 18:28TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 18:28ANARyan Whitney: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 18:28ANADan Sexton: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 18:28TBLSteve Downie: Misconduct10 min
  17. P3 18:28TBLSteve Downie: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Lecavalier
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANATBL
32Shots on goal31
1.6Expected goals2.2
69Shot attempts52
22Faceoffs won33
2Power plays2
30Penalty minutes40
25Hits24
9Blocked shots22
6Giveaways7
5Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.2 xGANA 1.6 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 31/100 · #857 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.15 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.

TBL winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).