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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 29, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Nashville Predators 2, Detroit Red Wings 4

Away

Nashville Predators

2

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.

DET winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH110020117247
DET11121018429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:27DETJason WilliamsPPAssists: Drew Miller, Valtteri Filppula · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:36NSHFrancis BouillonAssists: J-P Dumont, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:55DETNicklas LidstromPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P2 8:57DETDrew MillerGWGAssists: Brad Stuart, Valtteri Filppula · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–3
  5. P3 5:57NSHShea WeberAssists: Ryan Suter, Jerred Smithson · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P3 10:12DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Nicklas Lidstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 3:31NSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 16:28NSHRyan Jones: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 5:04NSHFrancis Bouillon: Slashing2 min · PPG
  4. P2 6:54NSHJ-P Dumont: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 9:54DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 16:20DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 18:56DETNiklas Kronwall: Cross checking2 min
  8. P3 18:25DETBrian Rafalski: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHDET
47Shots on goal29
3.0Expected goals2.5
79Shot attempts51
31Faceoffs won28
4Power plays4
8Penalty minutes8
19Hits30
11Blocked shots16
10Giveaways18
6Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.5 xGNSH 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 45/100 · #674 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.26 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 58% of the time.

DET winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).