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Ice Lab

Fri, Jan 29, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Colorado Avalanche 2, Dallas Stars 3

Away

Colorado Avalanche

2

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.

DAL winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL1817011226
DAL210011110331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:18DALJamie BennAssists: Steve Ott, Brenden Morrow · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P1 3:54COLMatt DucheneAssists: Brandon Yip, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
  3. P1 7:55DALMike ModanoAssists: Mark Fistric, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:56COLTJ GaliardiAssists: Brandon Yip, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
  5. P3 7:01DALMike ModanoGWGAssists: Fabian Brunnstrom, Toby Petersen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
  1. P1 15:38DALMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 7:09COLJohn-Michael Liles: Interference2 min
  3. P2 12:38COLTJ Galiardi: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Benn
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLDAL
26Shots on goal31
1.7Expected goals3.5
64Shot attempts59
19Faceoffs won19
1Power plays2
4Penalty minutes2
38Hits26
13Blocked shots23
3Giveaways12
9Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.5 xGCOL 1.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 38/100 · #760 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.29 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.

DAL winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).