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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 30, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Montréal Canadiens 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Ottawa Senators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.

OTT winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
MTL0111121600229
OTT1111120915337

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:21OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Filip Kuba, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
  2. P2 11:37OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Filip Kuba, Alex Kovalev · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P2 15:17MTLBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Michael Cammalleri · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–2
  4. P3 17:15MTLBrian GiontaPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec · Snap, 0.28 xG2–2
  5. OT 3:33OTTMike FisherGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.00 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 18:27OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 18:27MTLRyan O'Byrne: Charging2 min
  3. P2 10:52MTLHal Gill: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 14:15OTTMatt Carkner: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P3 6:09MTLRoman Hamrlik: Holding2 min
  6. P3 15:58OTTChris Kelly: High sticking2 min · PPG
  7. OT 2:17MTLHal Gill: Tripping2 min
  8. OT 3:12OTTJason Spezza: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Plekanec
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLOTT
29Shots on goal37
2.2Expected goals2.8
59Shot attempts59
28Faceoffs won27
2Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
23Hits23
12Blocked shots19
8Giveaways13
9Takeaways19

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 2.8 xGMTL 2.2 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #382 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.64 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.

OTT winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).