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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 30, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Los Angeles Kings 3, Boston Bruins 2 (SO)

Away

Los Angeles Kings

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Boston Bruins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.

BOS winsLAK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
LAK11007110023329
BOS0711319042233

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:06LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jarret Stoll · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P2 15:16BOSMarco SturmPPAssists: Marc Savard · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P3 1:20BOSMark RecchiPPAssists: David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–2
  4. P3 4:29LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Michal Handzus, Randy Jones · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. BOS Zdeno Chara stopped
  2. 2. LAK Anze Kopitar scored
  3. 3. BOS Blake Wheeler stopped
  4. 4. LAK Dustin Brown stopped
  5. 5. BOS Michael Ryder scored
  6. 6. LAK Michal Handzus stopped
  7. 7. BOS Marc Savard scored
  8. 8. LAK Ryan Smyth scored
  9. 9. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
  10. 10. LAK Oscar Moller stopped
  11. 11. BOS Mark Recchi stopped
  12. 12. LAK Jarret Stoll scored
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 0:39LAKDrew Doughty: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 8:06LAKRyan Smyth: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 11:47BOSMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 13:51BOSMark Stuart: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 4:58BOSMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 4:58LAKWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P2 4:58LAKWayne Simmonds: Instigator2 min
  8. P2 4:58LAKWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 4:58LAKWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
  10. P2 5:27BOSTim Thomas: High sticking2 min
  11. P2 8:29LAKRob Scuderi: Cross checking2 min
  12. P2 15:08LAKBrandon Segal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  13. P2 16:35BOSMarc Savard: Hooking2 min
  14. P2 19:39LAKScott Parse: Tripping2 min · PPG
  15. P3 2:38BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

LAK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← LAK attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Stoll
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

LAKBOS
29Shots on goal33
2.0Expected goals2.2
43Shot attempts52
32Faceoffs won28
4Power plays7
29Penalty minutes15
19Hits27
12Blocked shots10
4Giveaways7
2Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.2 xGLAK 2.0 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSLAK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #476 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.82 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 22% (winner's lowest chance)
LAK 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.

BOS winsLAK wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − LAK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).