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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 30, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Vancouver Canucks 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3

Away

Vancouver Canucks

5

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 91% of the time.

TOR winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN01419412535
TOR3803010321

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:52TORPhil KesselAssists: Matt Stajan, Carl Gunnarsson · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 3:49TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Matt Stajan, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P1 19:55TORJamal MayersAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Francois Beauchemin · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
  4. P2 9:29VANAlexandre BurrowsSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P3 3:27VANDaniel SedinAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Christian Ehrhoff · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
  6. P3 5:32VANHenrik SedinAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.41 xG3–3
  7. P3 17:56VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–3
  8. P3 19:22VANAlexandre BurrowsENAssists: Mason Raymond, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 2:00VANRyan Kesler: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 4:22TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 4:22VANDarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 6:16TORFrancois Beauchemin: Interference2 min
  5. P1 15:51TORJay Rosehill: Tripping2 min
  6. P1 16:28TORNiklas Hagman: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 2:44VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 7:40VANMikael Samuelsson: High sticking2 min
  9. P2 11:36TORIan White: Interference2 min
  10. P2 18:53VANRick Rypien: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 12:47TORWayne Primeau: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 15:06VANChristian Ehrhoff: High sticking2 min
  13. P3 19:39TORJay Rosehill: Hooking2 min
  14. P3 19:39TORJay Rosehill: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← VAN attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Primeau
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANTOR
35Shots on goal21
4.7Expected goals1.6
78Shot attempts40
28Faceoffs won34
6Power plays5
15Penalty minutes19
17Hits26
10Blocked shots20
13Giveaways11
9Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 1.6 xGVAN 4.7 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #99 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.77 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 6% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +43 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 91% of the time.

TOR winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).