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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 30, 2010·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

New York Islanders 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2

Away

New York Islanders

1

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.

PHI winsNYI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYI010112010132
PHI21601006232

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:22PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Darroll Powe, Jeff Carter · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 17:12PHIScott HartnellPPGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Simon Gagne · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
  3. P2 14:44NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rob Schremp · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 4:24NYIAndy Sutton: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 16:29NYISean Bergenheim: High sticking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 9:19PHIChris Pronger: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 11:29NYIRichard Park: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 12:38PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P2 16:09NYIDoug Weight: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 17:34PHIScott Hartnell: Cross checking2 min
  8. P2 17:34NYIAndy Sutton: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 17:34PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 0:38NYIFreddy Meyer: Boarding2 min
  11. P3 3:40PHIDaniel Carcillo: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  12. P3 14:13NYIDoug Weight: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← NYI attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Betts won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYIPHI
32Shots on goal32
1.9Expected goals3.1
61Shot attempts58
30Faceoffs won34
4Power plays6
14Penalty minutes10
20Hits24
19Blocked shots19
7Giveaways10
8Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.1 xGNYI 1.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHINYI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1010 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.92 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NYI 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.

PHI winsNYI wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).