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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 30, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh

Chicago Blackhawks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

2

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.

CAR winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI010116115241
CAR1101628424

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:50CARSergei SamsonovAssists: Tom Kostopoulos, Andrew Alberts · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
  2. P2 6:46CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Sharp, Andrew Ladd · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:53CARJussi JokinenAssists: Eric Staal, Andrew Alberts · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P3 7:43CHIAndrew LaddAssists: Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. P3 9:08CARBrandon SutterGWGAssists: Chad LaRose, Jiri Tlusty · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
  6. P3 9:34CARMatt CullenAssists: Tom Kostopoulos, Sergei Samsonov · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 15:13CARJussi Jokinen: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 15:20CHIDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
  3. P2 8:30CHIMarian Hossa: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 5:17CARNiclas Wallin: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 18:04CARNiclas Wallin: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sharp won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHICAR
41Shots on goal24
4.7Expected goals2.9
79Shot attempts53
16Faceoffs won32
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
24Hits26
13Blocked shots19
4Giveaways5
1Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 2.9 xGCHI 4.7 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 49/100 · #617 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.55 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 76% of the time.

CAR winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).