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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 30, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Columbus Blue Jackets 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

3

Final

Overtime

Home

St. Louis Blues

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.

STL winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
CBJ15190411319
STL1100311202227

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:09CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Freddy Modin, Mathieu Roy · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
  2. P1 19:58STLDavid BackesPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Perron · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P2 18:36CBJFedor TyutinPPAssists: Rick Nash, R.J. Umberger · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
  4. P3 18:25STLAndy McDonaldPPAssists: Erik Johnson, Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
  5. OT 1:32CBJKris RussellGWGAssists: Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 19:34CBJDerick Brassard: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P2 3:10STLBrad Winchester: Instigator2 min
  3. P2 3:10CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 3:10STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 3:10STLBrad Winchester: Misconduct10 min
  6. P2 7:43CBJRick Nash: Interference2 min
  7. P2 7:43CBJMike Commodore: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 7:43STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 11:36STLKeith Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
  10. P2 14:43CBJJan Hejda: Holding2 min
  11. P2 16:50STLKeith Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  12. P2 17:58STLRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 13:40STLBrad Boyes: High sticking2 min
  14. P3 17:09CBJRick Nash: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Backes
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJSTL
19Shots on goal27
2.1Expected goals2.5
35Shot attempts59
30Faceoffs won23
5Power plays4
15Penalty minutes27
24Hits16
15Blocked shots9
3Giveaways9
5Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.5 xGCBJ 2.1 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #278 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.04 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +41 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.

STL winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).