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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 30, 2010·Sommet Center, Nashville

Atlanta Thrashers 3, Nashville Predators 4

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.

NSH winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL11026010326
NSH210111110431

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:59NSHJoel WardAssists: Martin Erat, Dan Hamhuis · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:27NSHJerred SmithsonAssists: Nick Spaling, Jordin Tootoo · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
  3. P1 13:57ATLBryan LittlePPAssists: Todd White, Nik Antropov · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 11:12NSHMartin EratAssists: Joel Ward, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P2 12:23ATLChris ThorburnSHAssists: Marty Reasoner · Backhand, 0.37 xG2–3
  6. P2 15:03ATLBryan LittleAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Nik Antropov · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–3
  7. P3 0:07NSHJason ArnottGWGAssists: Cody Franson, Steve Sullivan · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 13:50NSHFrancis Bouillon: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P2 2:39ATLBoris Valabik: Interference2 min
  3. P2 3:15ATLChris Thorburn: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 6:55NSHSteve Sullivan: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 6:55ATLJim Slater: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 11:59ATLToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
  7. P3 1:18NSHRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 8:54NSHJason Arnott: Holding2 min
  9. P3 11:47NSHJason Arnott: Interference2 min
  10. P3 11:47ATLBoris Valabik: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Arnott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLNSH
26Shots on goal31
2.2Expected goals2.8
44Shot attempts52
26Faceoffs won29
3Power plays3
10Penalty minutes10
13Hits14
11Blocked shots12
6Giveaways10
10Takeaways17

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 2.8 xGATL 2.2 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 72/100 · #317 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.54 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.

NSH winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).