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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 30, 2010·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Edmonton Oilers 1, Calgary Flames 6

Away

Edmonton Oilers

1

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.

CGY winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM1100909128
CGY2931417630

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:45CGYDustin BoydAssists: Jarome Iginla, Mikael Backlund · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:25EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan, Denis Grebeshkov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P1 13:20CGYRene BourqueGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jarome Iginla · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
  4. P2 6:48CGYDustin BoydUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P2 7:32CGYDion PhaneufAssists: Jamie Lundmark, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
  6. P2 15:13CGYJarome IginlaPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Olli Jokinen · Snap, 0.42 xG1–5
  7. P3 9:40CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Dustin Boyd, Jay Bouwmeester · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–6
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 10:35CGYDustin Boyd: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 10:35CGYMark Giordano: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 10:35EDMShawn Horcoff: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 18:30CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 12:40CGYBrian McGrattan: Misconduct10 min
  6. P2 13:21EDMAndrew Cogliano: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 13:40EDMSheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 17:35CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 19:50CGYMikael Backlund: Too many men on the ice2 min
  10. P3 3:08CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 3:08EDMSheldon Souray: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 5:22CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 16:52EDMRyan Potulny: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMCGY
28Shots on goal30
1.5Expected goals3.2
54Shot attempts59
26Faceoffs won28
5Power plays3
16Penalty minutes30
10Hits14
14Blocked shots18
4Giveaways11
4Takeaways19

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 3.2 xGEDM 1.5 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 26/100 · #913 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.83 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.

CGY winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).