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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 30, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Minnesota Wild 2, San Jose Sharks 5

Away

Minnesota Wild

2

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.

SJS winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN210017011238
SJS113212211536

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:25MINOwen NolanPPAssists: Guillaume Latendresse, Eric Belanger · Slap, 0.28 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:30SJSJason DemersPPAssists: Ryane Clowe, Manny Malhotra · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:42MINCal ClutterbuckPPAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Andrew Brunette · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–1
  4. P2 3:15SJSJason DemersPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P2 16:57SJSJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P3 13:14SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
  7. P3 16:25SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Dany Heatley, Douglas Murray · Slap, 0.28 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 0:55MINMikko Koivu: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 5:02SJSDevin Setoguchi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  3. P1 9:34MINMartin Havlat: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P1 17:47SJSScott Nichol: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P2 1:40MINEric Belanger: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  6. P2 8:26SJSKent Huskins: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 15:33MINMarek Zidlicky: Slashing2 min · PPG
  8. P3 1:32SJSDany Heatley: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 6:03MINKyle Brodziak: Cross checking2 min
  10. P3 10:41SJSJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 13:07MINRobbie Earl: Interference2 min · PPG
  12. P3 14:01MINKim Johnsson: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Nichol won the faceoff against Belanger
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINSJS
38Shots on goal36
2.6Expected goals3.5
62Shot attempts61
22Faceoffs won38
5Power plays7
14Penalty minutes10
18Hits21
14Blocked shots13
9Giveaways24
8Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 3.5 xGMIN 2.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 57/100 · #531 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.53 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.

SJS winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).