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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 31, 2010·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

Detroit Red Wings 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)

Away

Detroit Red Wings

1

Final

Shootout

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.

PIT winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DET0605110030124
PIT016113016022247

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 16:46PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Alex Goligoski, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P3 11:10DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Brad Stuart, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. PIT Kris Letang stopped
  2. 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
  3. 3. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
  4. 4. DET Jason Williams stopped
  5. 5. PIT Evgeni Malkin scored
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 3:31DETPavel Datsyuk: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 12:15DETValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 15:59PITSergei Gonchar: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 6:28PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 14:22PITMark Eaton: Holding2 min
  6. P3 2:40PITMatt Cooke: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  7. P3 3:49DETDrew Miller: High sticking2 min
  8. OT 3:39PITSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETPIT
24Shots on goal47
1.8Expected goals2.8
52Shot attempts76
41Faceoffs won20
5Power plays3
6Penalty minutes10
19Hits25
11Blocked shots13
2Giveaways7
0Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.8 xGDET 1.8 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #707 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.40 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.

PIT winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).