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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 31, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Phoenix Coyotes 4, Dallas Stars 2

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

4

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.

DAL winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX1151729431
DAL05112123240

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:41PHXKeith YandleAssists: Shane Doan, Peter Mueller · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P2 2:26PHXPeter MuellerAssists: Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
  3. P2 7:07DALSteve OttAssists: Brenden Morrow, Alex Auld · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P3 4:37PHXRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
  5. P3 12:58DALFabian BrunnstromAssists: Toby Petersen, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
  6. P3 13:09PHXShane DoanAssists: Peter Mueller · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 9:36PHXPeter Mueller: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 17:44DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
  3. P3 15:06PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
  4. P3 19:01DALJamie Benn: Misconduct10 min
  5. P3 19:01PHXSami Lepisto: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXDAL
31Shots on goal40
1.7Expected goals3.1
52Shot attempts73
34Faceoffs won29
1Power plays2
14Penalty minutes12
18Hits39
16Blocked shots11
2Giveaways9
6Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.1 xGPHX 1.7 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 44/100 · #682 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.21 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.

DAL winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).