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Ice Lab

Mon, Feb 1, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Carolina Hurricanes 2, Edmonton Oilers 4

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

2

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.

EDM winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR11119015235
EDM21421003427

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:42CARAndrew AlbertsAssists: Brandon Sutter · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:00EDMJean-Francois JacquesAssists: Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Alex Plante · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P1 15:00EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan, Andrew Cogliano · Snap, 0.02 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:49CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
  5. P2 13:31EDMMarc-Antoine PouliotGWGAssists: Zack Stortini, Jean-Francois Jacques · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–3
  6. P2 17:05EDMSam GagnerPPAssists: Mike Comrie, Patrick O'Sullivan · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 1:48CARJoni Pitkanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 2:39EDMDustin Penner: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 1:01EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 5:03CARJoni Pitkanen: Elbowing2 min
  5. P2 7:30CARNiclas Wallin: Holding2 min
  6. P2 10:27EDMMike Comrie: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 14:37EDMGilbert Brule: Boarding2 min
  8. P2 15:31CARRay Whitney: Interference2 min · PPG
  9. P3 3:17CARAndrew Alberts: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Sutter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CAREDM
35Shots on goal27
2.5Expected goals2.8
70Shot attempts45
28Faceoffs won30
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
11Hits14
11Blocked shots17
13Giveaways25
7Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.8 xGCAR 2.5 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #652 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.36 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 40% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.

EDM winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).