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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 2, 2010·TD Garden, Boston

Washington Capitals 4, Boston Bruins 1

Away

Washington Capitals

4

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.

BOS winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH0511239426
BOS113016013142

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:58BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Marc Savard, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:04WSHMike KnubleAssists: Tom Poti, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P3 5:04WSHBrooks LaichGWGAssists: Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
  4. P3 7:51WSHBoyd GordonAssists: Tom Poti, Brian Pothier · Snap, 0.19 xG3–1
  5. P3 19:28WSHAlex OvechkinENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.61 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 1:03WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
  2. P1 2:16BOSBlake Wheeler: Interference2 min
  3. P1 5:30WSHMatt Bradley: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P1 6:50WSHAlexander Semin: High sticking2 min
  5. P1 12:02WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 3:25BOSMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 9:24BOSMarco Sturm: Holding2 min
  8. P2 11:09BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 15:26WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 1:15WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fleischmann won the faceoff against Savard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHBOS
26Shots on goal42
2.8Expected goals3.9
44Shot attempts64
34Faceoffs won38
4Power plays6
12Penalty minutes8
19Hits23
12Blocked shots11
3Giveaways2
6Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.9 xGWSH 2.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 37/100 · #775 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.25 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.

BOS winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).