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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 2, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

New Jersey Devils 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 3

Away

New Jersey Devils

0

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.

TOR winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD0909012030
TOR1921205326

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:40TORNikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Fredrik Sjostrom, Rickard Wallin · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:23TORPhil KesselAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.23 xG0–2
  3. P2 14:09TORFrancois BeaucheminPPAssists: Lee Stempniak, John Mitchell · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 6:51TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 6:51NJDColin White: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 6:51NJDColin White: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 10:39NJDRob Niedermayer: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 13:27TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
  6. P1 13:27NJDPierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond: Fighting5 min
  7. P1 15:20TORChristian Hanson: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 3:33TORJay Rosehill: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 7:53NJDPierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond: Interference2 min
  10. P2 12:36NJDMike Mottau: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hanson won the faceoff against Niedermayer
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDTOR
30Shots on goal26
2.5Expected goals2.7
58Shot attempts55
16Faceoffs won26
2Power plays4
18Penalty minutes14
22Hits44
15Blocked shots17
3Giveaways6
7Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.7 xGNJD 2.5 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1178 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.56 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.

TOR winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).