Skip to content
Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 2, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Atlanta Thrashers 1

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 56% of the time.

ATL winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL2706011224
ATL0711109127

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:37TBLStephane VeilleuxAssists: Alex Tanguay, Vincent Lecavalier · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:43TBLMartin St. LouisGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
  3. P2 2:46ATLTodd WhiteAssists: Mark Popovic, Maxim Afinogenov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 17:35ATLNik Antropov: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P2 5:21TBLStephane Veilleux: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 6:54TBLTodd Fedoruk: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 13:36ATLZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
  5. P2 17:44ATLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min
  6. P3 8:44TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 11:46ATLEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 11:46TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Stamkos
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLATL
24Shots on goal27
2.1Expected goals2.4
45Shot attempts59
29Faceoffs won20
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
10Hits15
22Blocked shots10
6Giveaways10
7Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 2.4 xGTBL 2.1 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 20/100 · #976 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.04 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 56% of the time.

ATL winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).