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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 2, 2010·Sommet Center, Nashville

Phoenix Coyotes 1, Nashville Predators 0 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.

NSH winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PHX070908022126
NSH0605011031025

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. No goals in regulation or overtime.

Shootout

  1. 1. PHX Peter Mueller stopped
  2. 2. NSH Marcel Goc stopped
  3. 3. PHX Lauri Korpikoski scored
  4. 4. NSH Martin Erat stopped
  5. 5. PHX Shane Doan stopped
  6. 6. NSH David Legwand scored
  7. 7. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
  8. 8. NSH Patric Hornqvist stopped
  9. 9. PHX Petr Prucha stopped
  10. 10. NSH Steve Sullivan stopped
  11. 11. PHX Vernon Fiddler stopped
  12. 12. NSH Jason Arnott stopped
  13. 13. PHX Taylor Pyatt stopped
  14. 14. NSH Cal O'Reilly stopped
  15. 15. PHX Matthew Lombardi stopped
  16. 16. NSH J-P Dumont stopped
  17. 17. PHX Robert Lang stopped
  18. 18. NSH Joel Ward stopped
  19. 19. PHX Adrian Aucoin scored
  20. 20. NSH Shea Weber stopped
Penalties (2)
  1. P1 5:32NSHPekka Rinne: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 14:46PHXZbynek Michalek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Arnott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXNSH
26Shots on goal25
1.7Expected goals1.5
52Shot attempts54
19Faceoffs won20
1Power plays1
2Penalty minutes2
14Hits16
14Blocked shots15
6Giveaways13
7Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 1.5 xGPHX 1.7 xG
00.511.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 1/100 · #1213 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.66 · 0 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3OTEnd

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.

NSH winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).