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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 2, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Minnesota Wild 2, Dallas Stars 4

Away

Minnesota Wild

2

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 86% of the time.

DAL winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN014115113242
DAL142816418

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:00DALJames NealAssists: Karlis Skrastins, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P2 12:54DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: Mike Modano, Jere Lehtinen · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 19:10MINGuillaume LatendressePPAssists: Brent Burns, Owen Nolan · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P2 19:35DALMike ModanoGWGAssists: Brenden Morrow, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P3 16:03MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Mikko Koivu, Kim Johnsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
  6. P3 16:56DALJamie BennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 1:01MINMartin Havlat: Holding the stick2 min
  2. P1 12:00DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 12:00MINCal Clutterbuck: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 4:14DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 10:48MINShane Hnidy: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 12:37MINEric Belanger: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 15:28MINCal Clutterbuck: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 15:28DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min · PPG
  9. P2 15:28DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 18:09DALMark Fistric: Holding2 min
  11. P3 19:04DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Benn
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINDAL
42Shots on goal18
2.8Expected goals0.9
77Shot attempts37
33Faceoffs won25
4Power plays3
16Penalty minutes18
40Hits37
10Blocked shots15
8Giveaways7
4Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 0.9 xGMIN 2.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 43/100 · #694 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.04 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 86% of the time.

DAL winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).