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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 2, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver

Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Colorado Avalanche 5

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

1

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.

COL winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ180805121
COL1711039526

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:43CBJAntoine VermetteSHAssists: Rick Nash, Mathieu Roy · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:31COLKyle QuinceyAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:33COLBrandon YipGWGAssists: Kyle Cumiskey, TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P3 0:41COLBrandon YipAssists: TJ Galiardi, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
  5. P3 7:14COLRyan O'ReillySHAssists: TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
  6. P3 10:29COLRyan O'ReillySHAssists: TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 0:35COLChris Stewart: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 1:20COLAdam Foote: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 1:20CBJRaffi Torres: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 4:49CBJJakub Voracek: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 5:50COLDarcy Tucker: Charging2 min
  6. P3 7:05COLPaul Stastny: High sticking double minor4 min
  7. P3 18:01COLAdam Foote: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 18:01CBJRaffi Torres: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Umberger won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJCOL
21Shots on goal26
2.1Expected goals2.4
37Shot attempts54
25Faceoffs won25
4Power plays1
6Penalty minutes12
15Hits22
11Blocked shots6
6Giveaways14
9Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 2.4 xGCBJ 2.1 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 28/100 · #902 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.93 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 37% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.

COL winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).